📐 Our model vs the sportsbooks
After every event we grade our AI's picks and win probabilities against the books' closing lines. Full transparency: our model sees the market line when it predicts, so this measures whether it reads fights better than the close — not market-blind clairvoyance.
Our AI's picks
58%
82/141 winners called
The books' picks
69%
97/141 winners called
When we disagreed with Vegas
10–25
our AI's record in the 35 fights where it picked against the books' favorite
Probability quality — Brier score (lower is better)
RedCorner model
0.2420
Closing line (DK/FD)
0.2224
Head-to-head across 141 fights with stored closing lines.
Calibration — when the model says X%, how often is it right?
50-59%
36% of 44
60-69%
59% of 81
70-79%
71% of 35
80+%
40% of 5
Recent events
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan2026-10-310.266 vs 0.178
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev2026-10-240.243 vs 0.236
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott2026-10-170.308 vs 0.293
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan2026-10-100.290 vs 0.319
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang2026-10-030.230 vs 0.130
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos2026-09-260.183 vs 0.257
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 22026-09-190.261 vs 0.257
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado2026-09-120.149 vs 0.163
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse2026-09-050.203 vs 0.197
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song2026-08-290.345 vs 0.263
Think you can beat both? Bet your points on the next card.