📐 Our model vs the sportsbooks
After every event we grade our AI's picks and win probabilities against the books' closing lines. Full transparency: our model sees the market line when it predicts, so this measures whether it reads fights better than the close — not market-blind clairvoyance.
Our AI's picks
66%
42/64 winners called
The books' picks
70%
45/64 winners called
When we disagreed with Vegas
3–6
our AI's record in the 9 fights where it picked against the books' favorite
Probability quality — Brier score (lower is better)
RedCorner model
0.2267
Closing line (DK/FD)
0.2106
Head-to-head across 64 fights with stored closing lines.
Calibration — when the model says X%, how often is it right?
50-59%
38% of 13
60-69%
57% of 47
70-79%
73% of 15
80+%
50% of 2
Recent events
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado2026-09-120.149 vs 0.163
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse2026-09-050.203 vs 0.197
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song2026-08-290.345 vs 0.263
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues2026-08-220.291 vs 0.227
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry2026-08-150.246 vs 0.286
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld2026-08-080.157 vs 0.136
Think you can beat both? Bet your points on the next card.