UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Hernandez's superior grappling volume and accuracy, plus high sub rate, give him a clear path to control and finish Rodrigues, who has below-average takedown defense relative to Hernandez's offense.

Spivac's superior grappling volume and submission threat give him an edge over Petrino, who is moving up from light heavyweight and may struggle with size and takedowns.

De Ridder's superior grappling volume and control, plus better striking accuracy and defense, should let him wear down Dolidze over the fight, securing a decision via top control.

Jones has superior reach, strong takedown volume and accuracy, and a deeper record against tougher competition. His grappling advantage should allow him to control Mederos and secure a decision win, matching betting favorite status.

Chaves is undefeated with better output efficiency, more takedowns, and submission threat, giving her more ways to win against Judice's high-volume but less accurate striking.

Odds heavily favor Wint, suggesting significant skill gap. Heavyweight bouts often end early, and market confidence justifies a finish prediction via strikes.

Douglas has superior volume and accuracy, higher SLpM and str acc, and market strongly favors him. Emmers' grappling could be a factor but Douglas' striking output should carry rounds.

Nzechukwu's superior reach, volume (4.96 SLpM), and better striking defense give him the edge on the feet against a heavyweight with weaker defense stats. His power and length should allow him to find a finish.

Haqparast's superior experience at UFC level, better striking defense, and TD defense give him an edge. Padilla has higher output but weaker defense (49%), making him vulnerable to Haqparast's counters over three rounds.

Barbosa has a dominant 18-2 record with high output (7.01 SLpM) and strong betting favorite status at -1689, indicating a significant skill gap over the largely unknown Kuse.

Gauge Young holds a heavy striking output (6.32 SLpM) and solid TD defense, matched with strong betting favoritism (-341). Lack of data on Dorsainvil suggests limited experience, favoring Young's proven volume and durability.

McVey's elite striking output (6.51 SLpM) and 69% accuracy overwhelm Schultz's weaker striking defense (43%). McVey's youth and volume should overwhelm Schultz before grappling becomes a factor.

Dyer's high volume striking (7.71 SLpM) and reach advantage, plus superior record and perfect TD defense, should outpace Reed's more measured but lower-output approach over three rounds.